文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：我国体育产业与人口结构互动关系研究

英文题名：On Sports Industry and Population Structure Interaction Relations in China

作者：牟柳 朱子义 田广

第一作者：牟柳

机构：[1]重庆理工大学体育教学部,重庆400054;[2]西南大学体育学院,重庆400715;[3]西南大学研究生院,重庆400715;[4]贵州理工学院体育教学部,贵阳550003

第一机构：重庆理工大学体育教学部,重庆400054

年份：2021

卷号：46

期号：12

起止页码：123-131

中文期刊名：西南师范大学学报：自然科学版

外文期刊名：Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

收录：CSTPCD

基金：重庆市研究生教育教学改革研究项目(yjg213123);重庆市社会科学规划项目(2021NDYB012);中央高校基本科研业务费支持项目(XDJK2019C123);贵州省理论创新课题项目(GZLCLH-2021-147);重庆市研究生教育教学改革项目(yjg173052).

语种：中文

中文关键词：体育产业;0~14岁人口;15~64岁人口;65岁及以上人口;互动关系

外文关键词：sports industry;population aged 0-14;population aged 15-64;65 year old and above 65 years old the population;interaction

摘要：保持合理的人口结构是一个国家前进的根本保障.目前我国“少子老龄化”问题日益突出,处理好我国体育产业与人口结构的互动关系是当前迫在眉睫的问题之一.运用时间序列分析方法,以2006-2019年我国体育产业与人口结构时间序列数据为研究对象进行体育产业与人口结构关系的研究,研究显示:①我国体育产业与人口结构存在的相关性大小不一;②体育产业与人口结构存在长期稳定关系;年末总人口、0~14岁人口、15~64岁人口、65岁及以上人口每增加1%个单位,从长期来看将带动体育产业分别增加32.2309,-7.0796,26.6276,4.4848个单位.③短期内,体育产业与年末总人口、0~14岁人口、15~64岁人口具有抑制作用,与65岁及以上人口呈溢出效应.④体育产业与人口结构并未形成强有力的双向格兰杰因果关系.⑤年末总人口、0~14岁人口、15~64岁人口对体育产业的冲击是短期效应大于长期效应,65岁及以上人口对体育产业的冲击相反为长期效应大于短期效应.⑥人口结构对自身的贡献率呈短期大、长期小特征,对体育产业的贡献率呈短期小、长期大特征,且0~14岁人口大于15~64岁人口以及65岁及以上人口.
Maintaining a reasonable population structure is the fundamental guarantee for a country to move forward.In the new era,facing the increasingly prominent problem of“aging of fewer children”,it is one of the urgent problems to deal with the interaction between sports industry and population structure.Using the time series analysis method,the time series data of sports industry and population structure in China from 2006 to 2019 have been taken in the paper as the research object.The results show that:1)The correlation between sports industry and population structure is different in China;2)The relationship between sports industry and population structure is long-term stable;the increase of the total population at the end of the year,the population aged 0-14,the population aged 15-64,the population aged 65 and over by 1%will lead to the increase of the value of the sports industry by 32.2309,-7.0796,26.6276 and 4.4848 units in the long run.3)In the short term,the sports industry has a“restraining effect”with the total population at the end of the year,the population aged 0-14 and the population aged 15-64 and has a“spillover effect”with the population aged 65 and over.4)The sports industry and the population structure have not formed a strong two-way Granger causality.5)The impact of the total population at the end of the year,the population aged 0-14 and the population aged 15-64 on the sports industry is“the short-term effect is greater than the long-term effect”,and the impact of the population aged 65 or above on the sports industry is“the long-term effect is greater than the short-term effect”.6)the contribution rate of population structure to itself is“short-term big,long-term small”,the contribution rate to sports industry is“short-term small,long-term big”,and the population of 0-14 years old is>the population of 15-64 Years Old>the population of 65 years old and over.