文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：贵州省水文干旱演变趋势及特征分析

英文题名：Evolution Trend and Characteristic Analysis of Hydrological Drought in Guizhou

作者：李莎 朱春瑞 惠雪飘 刘振男

第一作者：李莎

机构：[1]贵州省贵阳市水文水资源局,贵州贵阳550001;[2]贵州理工学院土木工程学院,贵州贵阳550001

第一机构：贵州省贵阳市水文水资源局,贵州贵阳550001

年份：2025

卷号：46

期号：8

起止页码：58-66

中文期刊名：人民珠江

外文期刊名：Pearl River

基金：贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合基础-ZK〔2024〕515、黔科合基础-ZK〔2021〕295);贵州省水利厅科技计划项目(KT202421、KT202422);贵州理工学院高层次人才科研启动项目(2023GCC071)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：标准化径流指数;演变趋势;水文干旱;贵州省

外文关键词：standardized runoff index;evolution trend;hydrological drought;Guizhou Province

摘要：准确评价干旱情势、刻画干旱发展趋势是保障粮食安全与用水安全的关键。基于中国气象局全球陆面再分析产品,提取了月尺度径流数据,计算了不同时间尺度标准化径流指数,采用经验正交函数分解、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,研究了贵州省多尺度干旱的时空分布、趋势变化及周期性特征。结果表明:经验正交函数分解结果呈现出显著的相异性,空间分布可概括为“东南—西北”型、“间接分隔”型,方差累积贡献率约为70%;贵州省水文干旱的时间特征显著,大部分地区以2000年左右为界,出现了明显的“干湿”波动变化;随着时间尺度的增大,特征向量的正负值分解由简单变为复杂;时间系数趋势变化随着时间尺度的增大而逐渐稳定;贵州省水文干湿演变趋势特征明显,月尺度、季尺度及年尺度的水文干湿情势由西至东均呈现出“湿润—干旱—湿润—干旱”的空间分布特征,水文干湿强度变化趋势自北而南逐步走低;贵州省的月尺度及季尺度水文干湿周期性特征显著,主振荡周期均为12a,而鉴于资料长度限制,年尺度水文干湿未体现明显的周期性特征。
Accurate evaluation of drought situation and characterization of drought development trend is the key to ensuring food security and water security.Based on the global land surface reanalysis product of China Meteorological Administration,this paper extracts the monthly-scale runoff data,calculates the standardized runoff index at different time scales,and uses empirical orthogonal function decomposition and Mann-Kendall test to study the spatio-temporal distribution,trend change,and periodic characteristics of multi-scale drought in Guizhou Province.The results show that the empirical orthogonal function decomposition results exhibit significant dissimilarity,and the spatial distribution can be summarized as"southeast–northwest"type and"indirect separation"type,with the cumulative contribution rate of variance being about 70%.The time characteristics of hydrological drought in Guizhou Province are significant,and most of the areas have obvious fluctuations of"dry and wet"from around 2000.With the increase in time scale,the decomposition of positive and negative eigenvectors changes from simple to complex.The trend change of the time coefficient is gradually stable with the increase in time scale.The"dry and wet"evolution trend in hydrology of Guizhou Province has obvious characteristics.The spatial distribution of"dry and wet"in terms of hydrology at monthly,seasonal,and annual scales is"wetdrought-wet-drought"from west to east,and the dry and wet intensity decreases gradually from north to south.The monthly and seasonal hydrological periodicity of"dry and wet"in Guizhou Province is significant,and the main oscillation period is 12a.However,due to the limitation of data length,the annual hydrological periodicity is not obvious.