文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：贵州省南部火龙果种植的气候风险评估

英文题名：Climate risk assessment of dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou province

作者：张新鼎 韩会庆 郜红娟 白玉梅

第一作者：张新鼎

机构：[1]贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院;[2]贵州师范学院地理与资源学院

第一机构：贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院

年份：2019

卷号：40

期号：1

起止页码：54-62

中文期刊名：宁夏师范学院学报

外文期刊名：Journal of Ningxia Normal University

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

基金：贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2017]217);贵州理工学院学术新苗培养及探索创新项目(黔科合平台人才[2017]5789-23);贵州理工学院高层次人才科研启动项目(气候变化对贵州省淡水生态系统服务的影响)

语种：中文

中文关键词：贵州省南部;火龙果;气候风险评估;空间格局

外文关键词：Southern parts of Guizhou province;Dragon fruit;Climate risk assessment;Spatial pattern

摘要：基于1961—2017年历史气象数据,综合考虑火龙果种植气候适宜性水平,利用AHP分析法、Ori-gin75软件以及ArcGIS平台下的空间分析工具,通过构建火龙果种植区的气候风险等级模型,对贵州省南部火龙果种植的气候风险性进行动态分析与评估.结果表明,随着气候的变化,极端最低气温和无霜日数对火龙果种植的气候风险影响程度明显下降,而极端最高气温的风险程度则明显提高,其余因子的风险变化相对平缓.且1961—2017年贵州省南部火龙果种植区的气候风险面积呈现一级>三级>二级>四级,分别占总面积的31. 82%、28. 97%、22. 24%和16. 97%.在气候变化背景下,贵州省南部火龙果种植的气候风险总体上呈逐渐降低的趋势.
Comprehensively considering the climate suitablility level of dragon fruit,the climate risk of dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou Province was analyzed by means of constructing a climate risk rank moduel for its growing areas.The analyze was based on the 1961-2017 historical meteorological data with the help of AHP analysis,Origin 75 software and spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS platform.The results showed that the influence degree of the extreme minimum temperature and number of frost free days on the climate risk of dragon fruit planting was significantly reduced,while the risk degree of extreme maximum temperature was significantly increased.The risk change of other factors was relatively flat.The climate risk area of the dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou Province presented first-level >three-level >second-level >four-level,which accounted for 31.82%,28.97%,22.24%and 16.97%of the total area,respectively.The trend of climate risk of dragon fruit planting in southern parts of Guizhou province was gradually decreasing from 1961 to 2017 under the background of climate change.