文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Projected Changes in Soil Freeze Depth and the Discussion of Potential Impacts on Eco-Hydrological Processes Over the Tibetan Plateau During the 21st Century

作者：Li, Hu Pan, Xiaoduo Peng, Xiaoqing Ali Washakh, Rana Muhammad Zheng, Min

第一作者：Li, Hu

机构：[1] National Tibetan Plateau Data Center [TPDC], State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources [TPESER], Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; [2] Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability, Qinghai Normal University, Xining, 810016, China; [3] University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China; [4] Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental Systems, Ministry of Education, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China; [5] School of Civil Engineering, Guizhou Institute of Technology, Guiyang, 550003, China

第一机构：National Tibetan Plateau Data Center [TPDC], State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources [TPESER], Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

年份：2023

外文期刊名：SSRN

收录：EI(收录号：20230200411)

语种：英文

外文关键词：Frozen soils - Global warming - Vegetation

摘要：In the context of global warming, the soil freeze depth (SFD) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has undergone significant changes, which has a profound impact on the hydrological cycle and ecosystem. This study employs Stefan's solution and the downscaled CMIP6 datasets to simulate the future SFDs over the TP. The change trends of the projected SFDs under different scenarios are investigated, and the response of SFDs to potential climatic factors, such as temperature and precipitation, are analyzed. The potential impacts of SFD changes on eco-hydrological processes are analyzed and discussed based on the relationships between SFDs, frozen ground distribution, soil moisture, and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Results show that the projected SFDs of the TP are estimated to decrease at rates of 0.100 cm/yr under the SSP126, 0.330 cm/yr under the SSP245, 0.565 cm/yr under the SSP370, and 0.750 cm/yr under the SSP585, additionally, the SFD decreases at a rate of 0.160 cm/yr in the historical period from 1950 to 2014, which is between the decreasing rates of the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. The projected SFDs are negatively correlated with climatic factors, decreasing with the increase of temperature and precipitation and more significant with the increase of carbon emission concentration. From 1981 to 2014, in regions where soil moisture shows an increasing trend, SFD decreases at a rate of 0.305 cm/yr, while in regions where soil moisture shows a decreasing trend, SFD decreases at a rate of 0.368 cm/yr. The decrease rate of SFD in regions where NDVI exhibits a decreasing trend (-0.357 cm/yr) is faster than that in regions where NDVI shows a increasing trend (-0.341 cm/yr). Therefore, the rapid decrease in SFD will lead to a decrease in soil moisture, and have a negative impact on vegetation growth. ? 2023, The Authors. All rights reserved.