文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Impacts of Future Climate and Farmland Changes on the Potential Cultivation Suitability of Apricot in China

作者：Han, Huiqing Song, Huili Wang, Kai Jian, Yuanju

通信作者：Han, HQ[1]

机构：[1]Guizhou Inst Technol, Sch Architecture & Urban Planning, Guiyang 550025, Peoples R China;[2]Qiannan Acad Agr Sci, Duyun 558400, Peoples R China;[3]Guizhou Inst Technol, Sch Econ & Management, Guiyang 550025, Peoples R China

第一机构：贵州理工学院

通信机构：corresponding author), Guizhou Inst Technol, Sch Architecture & Urban Planning, Guiyang 550025, Peoples R China.|贵州理工学院;

年份：2025

卷号：11

期号：11

外文期刊名：HORTICULTURAE

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105022895692);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001623808400001)】；

基金：This work was supported by the Guizhou provincial science and technology Projects (ZK [2023]018), National Natural Science Foundation of China (72264005) and Guizhou Office of Philosophy and Social Science (23GZYB146).

语种：英文

外文关键词：climate change; farmland transformation; suitability assessment; spatial pattern evolution; apricot

摘要：Global climate warming and the evolution of land-use patterns are jointly reshaping the spatial configuration of fruit tree cultivation. Focusing on apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) in China, this study constructs a comprehensive suitability assessment framework driven by the dual forces of climate change and farmland transformation. By integrating multi-source climate datasets, projected land-use data, and geostatistical analysis, the study evaluates the impacts of climate and farmland changes on the potential cultivation suitability of apricot under four SSP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) during 2021-2100. The results indicate that: (1) climate warming generally expands potential suitable areas, showing a latitudinal shift from low to high regions; (2) under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, moderately suitable areas increase significantly, whereas highly suitable areas degrade in the long term due to excess heat and water stress; (3) farmland transformation exerts a crucial constraint between climatic potential and actual plantability, as resource reduction and spatial mismatch limit development potential; and (4) climate factors contribute approximately 72% to suitability variation, while farmland factors contribute about 28%, with a significant spatial interaction between the two. This study reveals the dynamic evolution of apricot suitability patterns under the dual drivers of climate and land changes, providing a scientific basis for fruit industry optimization and spatial land-use planning.