文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：1981—2020年贵阳市洪涝灾害多尺度时序特征分析

英文题名：Multi-scale Time Series Analysis of Flood Disaster in Guiyang City from 1981 to 2020

作者：赵禹韩 尹昌应 戴丽 徐丹丹 周方 张平

第一作者：赵禹韩

机构：[1]贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025;[2]贵州省山地资源与环境遥感应用重点实验室,贵州贵阳550025;[3]贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院,贵州贵阳550003;[4]贵州省气象学会,贵州贵阳550002

第一机构：贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院,贵州贵阳550025

年份：2023

卷号：47

期号：3

起止页码：80-87

中文期刊名：中低纬山地气象

外文期刊名：Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基金：贵州省科学技术基金项目(黔科合基础[2017]1409):山地城市内涝灾害发生机制与空间管理对策研究。

语种：中文

中文关键词：SPEI;多尺度时间序列;洪涝;贵阳市

外文关键词：SPEI;multi-scale time series;flood and water-logging;Guiyang City

摘要：随着全球城市化进程的快速推进,城市洪涝灾害频繁发生,成为世界各国、特别是中国等发展中国家普遍面临的城市问题。分析洪涝的时间演变规律和发展趋势,对于采取科学的政策措施有效防治洪涝灾害具有重要的参考价值。该文基于贵阳市1981—2020年的逐日气象数据,利用SPEI指数、Mann-Kendall检验和小波变换等方法,分析了近40 a多尺度时序下的洪涝变化规律。结果表明:(1)贵阳市月际和季节降水强度大,暴雨发生频次高,月际降水强度集中在大雨及以上,季节性降水强度集中在暴雨及以上,易发生极端降水事件,造成城市洪涝灾害;(2)多时间尺度下,SPEI值对于降水、气温等气象因素的响应敏感程度不一,日尺度敏感程度最强,其他尺度趋于平缓,同时,随着尺度的增加对应的洪涝事件占比逐渐减少;(3)贵阳市发生洪涝的年份占总年份的20%,SPEI-12上升趋势显著,SPEI-3春季和秋季突变发生频繁,秋季则呈显著上升趋势,说明季节性洪涝有增强趋势;(4)SPEI-1存在准31个月和准14个月的周期变化特征。
With the process of global urbanization is advancing rapidly,urban flood disasters occur frequently,which has become a common urban problem faced by all countries in the world,especially developing countries such as China.Analyzing the time evolution law and development trend of flood phenomenon has important reference value for adopting scientific policy measures to effectively prevent and control flood disasters.Based on the daily meteorological data of Guiyang City from 1981 to 2020,the SPEI index,Mann-Kendall test method and wavelet transform were used to analyze the flood variation law under multi-scale time series in the past 40 years.The results show that:(1)the monthly and seasonal precipitation intensity in Guiyang City is large,and the frequency of rainstorm is high.The monthly precipitation intensity is concentrated in heavy rain and above,and the seasonal precipitation intensity is concentrated in heavy rain and above,which is prone to extreme precipitation events and causes urban floods.(2)At multiple time scales,the sensitivity of SPEI values to meteorological factors such as precipitation and temperature is different.The sensitivity of daily scale is the strongest,and other scales tend to be gentle.At the same time,the proportion of flood events corresponding to large scales gradually decreases.(3)The years with floods in Guiyang accounted for 20%of the total years,SPEI-12 showed a significant upward trend,SPEI-3 had frequent abrupt changes in spring and autumn,and showed a significant upward trend in autumn,indicating that seasonal floods had an increasing trend.(4)SPEI-1 has periodic variation characteristics of quasi 31 months and quasi 14-months.