文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：基于极值理论的港湾式公交停靠站交通冲突研究

英文题名：Research on Traffic Conflict at Harbor Bus Stop Based on Extreme Value Theory

作者：葛鹏 陈梅

第一作者：葛鹏

机构：[1]贵州理工学院交通工程学院,贵阳550008;[2]贵州财经大学发展规划处,贵阳550008

第一机构：贵州理工学院交通工程学院

年份：2024

卷号：48

期号：6

起止页码：1063-1067

中文期刊名：武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）

外文期刊名：Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

收录：CSTPCD

基金：贵州省教育厅自然科学研究项目(黔教合KY字[2022]357号)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：城市交通;交通冲突;PET指标;极值模型;重现水平

外文关键词：urban transportation;traffic conflict;pet indicator;extreme value model;reproduction level

摘要：文中结合视频数据、VISSIM轨迹数据,使用SSAM交通冲突分析软件提取交通冲突PET(后侵入时间)指标,构建超阈值极值模型,标定了公交车与机动车、公交车与电动自行车的PET冲突阈值,构建了碰撞预测模型.结果表明:对于公交车与机动车、公交车与电动自行车的冲突两类冲突而言,其阈值分别为0.66和0.55 s,在发生交通冲突时,产生碰撞事故的可能性为5.04%和9.30%,事故的严重程度分别为轻微和严重.
Combined with video data and VISSIM trajectory data,the traffic conflict PET(post-intrusion time)index was extracted by using SSAM traffic conflict analysis software,and an over-threshold extreme model was constructed.The PET collision thresholds of buses and motor vehicles,buses and electric bicycles were calibrated,and collision prediction models were constructed.The results show that the thresholds are 0.66 s and 0.55 s for the conflicts between buses and motor vehicles and between buses and electric bicycles,respectively.In the event of a traffic conflict,the probability of a collision accident is 5.04%and 9.30%,and the severity of the accident is slight and serious respectively.